State house races in Districts 38-99 show at least one flip

House 49 match up between Sparks and Thomas has GOP worried

By: - November 2, 2020 5:29 am
(Getty Images)

(Getty Images)

In the final installment of our review of Tennessee House and Senate races, we preview the finances and the odds in House Districts 38-99, ranging from Middle Tennessee through West Tennessee.

There are few competitive districts with at least one notable exception: In House District 49, Republicans are expressing unease about Rep. Mike Sparks’ reelection. Democratic Challenger Brandon Thomas has outraised Sparks in fundraising efforts and received endorsements from national political figures including 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren. The Rutherford County district has evolved demographically over the last decade and Sparks pulled out a narrow win in 2018 that is in danger in a historic election year.

  • Click this linkto identify which house and senate districts you live in. Fill in your information on the right-hand side of the page under “Find My Legislator” in order to make use of the tool. 
  • The CNalysis rating found below the title of every section is meant to be used as a guide; it is not authoritative. These ratings are created by CNalysis, the only elections forecasting group in the whole country to handicap state legislative elections. 
  • The tables below each section contain the financial information reported by each campaign through the end of September, also known as Quarter 3. The incumbent in each race, if there is one, is marked with an asterisk in the table.

State House District 38 (Macon, Clay, Pickett, Scott & N. Fentress Counties):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Incumbent and insurance agent Kelly Keisling is being challenged for reelection by Carol Abney, a Certified Public Accountant. Her key policy positions are to expand Medicaid in order to combat rural hospital closures, legalizing medical marijuana, and increase public school funding. Keisling, the Chair of the House State Committee, is largely interested in social issues such as increased restrictions on abortion, his opposition to sanctuary cities, and his commitment to support the president. He voted against Gov. Bill Lee’s school voucher program and in favor of the fetal heartbeat abortion restriction measure. 

Keisling received the vast majority of his fundraising from various PACs to a total of $19,500. Abney collected most of her contributions from small-dollar donations but she did receive a $250 donation from Democratic State Rep. Bo Mitchell.

This will be the second time that these two candidates face each other in a general election, as they were both candidates during the 2018 election for this district. Then, Keisling beat Abney by a margin of 62 percentage points. 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Carol Abney $5,364.83 $10,935.56 $10,125.67 $6,174.72
Kelly Keisling* $33,928.77 $22,710.80 $9,936.65 $46,702.92

 

State House District 39 (Moore, N. ¾ of Franklin, N. & E. Marion Counties):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Iris Rudder is unopposed in the general election. She is the Vice-Chair of the House Government Operations Committee and is seeking her second term as State Representative.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Iris Rudder* $28,231.95 $1,103.38 $800.00 $28,535.33

 

State House District 40 (Smith, Trousdale, N. DeKalb & SE. Sumner Counties):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Incumbent and small business owner Terri Lynn Weaver is running for reelection without major party opposition, but social scientist Paddy Sizemore has filed to run for this seat as an Independent candidate. According to an interview he gave, Sizemore’s top three priorities are expanding Medicaid, supporting small businesses, and creating social progress. He also supports raising the minimum wage, eliminating the food tax, and legalizing marijuana. Weaver voted in favor of the fetal heartbeat abortion restriction measure and against Governor Lee’s controversial school voucher program. Weaver also filed a bill to categorize all children born through artificial insemination as illegitimate, regardless of the parents’ marital status.

Weaver received a $1,000 donation from Republican legislator Jeremy Faison; otherwise, the rest of her fundraising came mostly in the form of a $1,600 donation from Jesse Hughes of Gallatin. The majority of Sizemore’s donations come from a $3,000 contribution that he donated to himself. 

Weaver last had a general election opponent in 2016, when she defeated Democratic candidate Gayla Colvert Hendrix by a margin of 46 percentage points. This district is unlikely to be competitive.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Paddy Sizemore $4,718.14 $4,075.44 $3,474.77 $5,318.81
Terri Lynn Weaver* $28,026.07 $2,723.30 $1,890.77 $28,858.60

 

State House District 41 (Morgan, S. half of Fentress, Jackson & Overton Counties):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Democratic

Incumbent John Mark Windle is unopposed in the general election. Windle is Co-Chair of the Naming, Designating, & Private Acts Committee in the House and is a Lieutenant Colonel in the Tennessee Army National Guard. 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
John Mark Windle* $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00

 

State House District 42 (Cookeville & W. Putnam County):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Ryan Williams is unopposed in the general election. He is a former House Republican Caucus Chairman. 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Ryan Williams* $121,279.55 $5,150.00 $32,991.33 $93,438.22

 

State House District 43 (White, Grundy, N. & E. Warren Counties):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Incumbent and former police officer Paul Sherrell faces no major party opposition, but Luke Cameron has filed to run in this seat as an Independent candidate. No information on Cameron is available. Sherrell, the House Majority Floor Leader, voted in favor of both the fetal heartbeat abortion restriction measure and Lee’s school voucher program. His campaign is focused on bringing economic development to his district.

Sherrell raised more than $4,000 directly from PACs around the state, while Cameron did not report raising or spending any money this cycle.

Sherrell won reelection in 2018 by beating Democratic candidate Les Trotman 72% to 28%. As such, this race is not expected to be competitive at all.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Luke Cameron $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Paul Sherrell* $42,339.85 $4,950.00 $1,904.47 $45,385.38

 

State House District 44 (Hendersonville, N. & Central Sumner County):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent William Lamberth is unopposed in the general election. Lamberth has been the House Majority Leader since Jan. 2019.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
William Lamberth* $297,964.11 $17,750.00 $3,410.94 $312,303.17

 

State House District 45 (SW. Sumner County):

State Rep. Johnny Garrett (R-45) (Official photo, Tennessee General Assembly)
State Rep. Johnny Garrett (R-45) (Official photo, Tennessee General Assembly)

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Johnny Garrett is unopposed in the general election. Garrett has recently been elected as the House Republican Majority Whip.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Johnny Garrett* $98,085.21 $8,250.00 $2,622.42 $103,712.79

 

State House District 46 (Cannon, S. DeKalb & Most of Wilson Counties):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Clark Boyd is unopposed in the general election. Boyd is the Chair of the House Consumer & Human Resources Committee and insurance salesman.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Clark Boyd* $153,344.68 $22,125.00 $5,931.92 $169,537.76

 

State House District 47 (Coffee & SW. Warren Counties):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Rush Bricken is unopposed in the general election. Bricken is already the Vice-Chair of the House Consumer & Human Resources Committee, though just completing his first term. . 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Rush Bricken* $41,558.55 $4,100.00 $2,378.20 $43,280.35

 

State House District 48 (E. Murfreesboro & E. Rutherford County):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Incumbent and physician Bryan Terry is being challenged for reelection by Matt Ferry, a community activist and former Chair of the Rutherford County Democratic Party. Ferry is focusing on the issues of Medicaid expansion, increasing public school funding, and raising the minimum wage. Terry, the Chair of the House Health Committee, has said publicly that he would support some form of legalized medical marijuana. He has emphasized the issues of supporting farmers and keeping taxes low to promote economic development. Terry voted in favor of Lee’s school voucher program.

Matt Ferry (Photo: MattFerryTN48.com)

Terry collected more than $9,000 from PACs around the state. Ferry received a $300 donation from the Tennessee Federation of Democratic Women and a few more from various Democratic politicians. 

This will be the second election in as many cycles that these two candidates will be facing off. Terry beat Ferry 61% to 39%, which does not indicate the district is competitive.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Matt Ferry $3,026.69 $6,229.28 $1,829.98 $7,425.99
Bryan Terry* $175,841.63 $14,400.00 $2,767.49 $187,474.14

 

State House District 49 (Smyrna, NW. Murfreesboro & NW. Rutherford County):

CNalysis rating: Lean Republican

Incumbent and small business owner Mike Sparks is being challenged for reelection by Brandon Thomas, a Tennessee Democratic Party executive committeeman. Thomas is emphasizing several issues such as expanding Medicaid, increasing public school funding, ending the cash bail system, and creating a worker’s bill of rights. Sparks voted in favor of both the fetal heartbeat abortion restricition measure and Governor Lee’s controversial school voucher program. As a member of the House Naming, Designating, & Private Acts Committee, he voted against the removal of the bust honoring KKK Grand Wizard Nathan Bedford Forrest from the state capitol building.

Brandon Thomas (Photo: Brandon Thomas campaign)
Brandon Thomas (Photo: Brandon Thomas campaign)

Sparks raised more than $12,000 directly from PAC contributions and a further $3,250 from his Republican colleagues in the legislature. Thomas raised roughly $5,000 from various Democratic committees and politicians from around the state. He also collected $2,500 from a few labor-related PACs.

Thomas is being supported by several different advocacy groups including the Tennessee branch of the AFL-CIO, the Communication Workers of America union, and the LGBTQ Victory Fund, a group that aims to increase the number of LGBT+ people in office. Sparks earned the endorsement of the Tennessee Professional Fire Fighters Association and the National Federation of Independent Businesses.

State Rep. Mike Sparks, R-Smyrna (Photo: Tennessee General Assembly)
State Rep. Mike Sparks, R-Smyrna (Photo: Tennessee General Assembly)

This election will be the second time that these two candidates face off, as Sparks beat Thomas 61% to 39% in 2016. However, in 2018, Sparks defeated Democratic candidate Chris Mayor by a margin of only 5%. This district is trending leftward, Thomas is raising substantial funds, and Republicans have begun to express concerns Sparks loses. This  district is highly competitive and susceptible to a flip. 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Mike Sparks* $21,428.00 $18,950.00 $9,776.39 $30,601.61
Brandon Thomas $25,816.05 $31,657.34 $17,414.56 $40,058.83

 

State House District 57 (Green Hill, Mount Juliet & N. Wilson County):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Incumbent Susan Lynn is running for reelection without major party opposition, but former Wilson County School Board member Tom Sottek has filed to run in this district as an Independent. He supports the legalization of marijuana in some form, as long as the tax revenues from legalization are directed towards school funding. Sottek also opposes school vouchers, preferring for that money to be spent on teacher pay raises or other school improvements. Lynn is the first woman in either chamber to ever chair the Finance, Ways & Means Committee and has done so under the last two Speakers. Lynn was a co-sponsor of the fetal heartbeat abortion restriction measure and voted in favor of Lee’s school voucher program. Additionally, there are reports that she supports the debunked Q-Anon conspiracy theory.

State Rep. Susan Lynn (R-Mt. Juliet) (Official photo, Tennessee General Assembly)
State Rep. Susan Lynn (R-Mt. Juliet) (Official photo, Tennessee General Assembly)

Lynn raised more than $13,000 from various PACs and businesses in Tennessee, indicating that they do not mind her support for debunked far-right conspiracy theories. This quarter, Sottek loaned his campaign $3,382.00 and spent almost all of the money he raised.

This district is not expected to be competitive this year, even with Lynn’s support of far-right conspiracy theories. In 2018, she won by a margin of 36 percentage points, beating Democratic candidate Jordan Cole 68% to 32%.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Susan Lynn* $89,984.97 $17,250.00 $838.54 $106,396.43
Tom Sottek $445.56 $7,257.00 $7,145.36 $557.20

 

State House District 61 (Brentwood & N. Williamson County):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Incumbent Brandon Ogles is being challenged for reelection by Sam Bledsoe, a cancer survivor and technology worker. Bledsoe is campaigning on the issues of increasing public school funding, legalizing marijuana, expanding Medicaid, and creating stronger environmental standards. Ogles, the House Republican Caucus Vice-Chairman, co-sponsored the fetal heartbeat abortion restriction measure and voted in favor of Lee’s school voucher program in committee. He has said that he wants to focus on the issues of decreasing regulations on small businesses and shrinking the size of the government.

Ogles received over $3,000 in PAC or interest group donations, including $1,000 from a pro-school vouchers group. Bledsoe’s largest donation comes from the Williamson County Democratic Party at $1,100.

This district is not expected to be competitive because Ogles won by a large margin in 2018. He beat Democratic candidate Rebecca Purington 65% to 35%.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Sam Bledsoe $946.03 $1,400.00 $256.86 $2,089.17
Brandon Ogles* $31,851.90 $4,900.00 $299.82 $36,452.08

 

State House District 62 (Bedford, N. & Central Lincoln Counties):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Pat Marsh is unopposed in the general election. Marsh is the Chair of the House Utilities Subcommittee and owns a local trucking company. 

 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Pat Marsh* $181,355.74 $6,900.00 $10,621.00 $177,634.74

 

State House District 63 (E. Williamson County):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

This district is an interesting one because not only have both major parties fielded a candidate, but there is a credible Independent candidate as well. Republican incumbent Glen Casada is being challenged for reelection by both Democratic candidate Elizabeth Madeira and Independent Bradley Fiscus. Madeira, an educator and community activist, emphasizes the issues of expanding Medicaid, opposing any school voucher programs, and increasing transparency in our state government. Fiscus, a Williamson County Board of Education member and minister, stated that he entered the race because of the incumbent’s support for school vouchers and for his misconduct as a state leader. Besides opposing school voucher programs, Fiscus also supports amending sentencing standards in the state’s criminal justice system and increasing investment in infrastructure. Casada, the disgraced former Speaker of the House, had to resign from his leadership position amid several scandals. Notable among his many scandals was the hiring of a political operative to the state’s payroll with the specific intent of discrediting three of Representative Byrd’s sexual assault victims.

Elizabeth Madeira (campaign photo by Brian Copelan)
Elizabeth Madeira (Campaign photo by Brian Copeland)

Casada collected $10,000 from PACs and interest groups. He spent $20,000 on what is described as “postage” from the Tennessee Republican Party. Almost all of Fiscus’ funds were raised from small-dollar donations from individuals. Madeira received more than $3,000 from a few different Democratic politicians and groups; other than that, all of her donations were small-dollar. 

Madeira is supported by Moms Demand Action, a gun control advocacy group, and former Democratic Presidential candidate Pete Butiegeg.

State Rep. Glen Casada, R-Franklin, District 63 (Photo: Facebook)
State Rep. Glen Casada, R-Franklin, District 63 (Photo: Facebook)

She also has the endorsement of the Tennessee chapter of the AFL-CIO and the Tennessee Equality Project. Fiscus is also supported by Moms Demand Action and carries the endorsement of the Network for Public Education Action, a public education advocacy organization. Casada boasts the endorsement of both the National Rifle Association and the National Federation of Independent Businesses.

Even with Casada’s numerous scandals, this district will be a difficult flip for either candidate due to the strong Republican nature of the district. In 2018, Casada beat his Democratic candidate, Bill Peach, by a margin of 36 percentage points.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Glen Casada* $368,367.80 $19,714.59 $59,831.82 $328,250.57
Bradley Fiscus $14,304.60 $3,822.00 $4,859.45 $13,267.15
Elizabeth Madeira $54,974.19 $52,675.00 $58,318.19 $49,331.00

 

State House District 64 (Outskirts of Columbia & N., S., E. Maury Counties):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Incumbent and mortgage banker Scott Cepicky is being challenged for reelection by James Campbell, a union member and veteran. Campbell has focused on several issues including marijuana legalization, Medicaid expansion, and a minimum wage increase. Locally, he has lobbied for investment in greenways and bike paths throughout Maury County. Cepicky has prioritized traditional social issues like restricting abortion access, decreasing government regulations, and opposing any gun control measures. He voted in favor of both the fetal heartbeat abortion restriction measure and Lee’s school voucher program

Cepicky raised $4,000 from PACs and received a further $1,450 from Republican politicians and groups. Campbell collected $2,000 in total from two labor sources: the Tennessee AFL-CIO Labor Council and a UAW chapter in Lebanon.

Based on the 2018 margin, this district is not expected to be competitive. Cepicky beat Democratic candidate A.J. Holmes 63% to 35% with Independent candidate James Gray taking 2% of the vote.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
James Campbell $1,367.42 $2,122.00 $1,030.00 $2,459.42
Scott Cepicky* $55,314.84 $9,193.00 $9,979.94 $54,527.90

 

State House District 65 (Franklin & W. Williamson County):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Rep. Sam Whitson, R-Franklin (Photo: Tennessee General Assembly)
Rep. Sam Whitson, R-Franklin (Photo: Tennessee General Assembly)

Retired Army Colonel and incumbent Sam Whitson is being challenged for reelection by former Tennessee Language Center translator Jennifer Foley. She is campaigning on the issues of expanding Medicaid, increasing access to rural broadband, and implementing a universal pre-K program. Foley also supports raising the minimum wage and raising teacher salaries. Whitson is primarily focused on increasing infrastructure funding in his district and keeping the government small. He voted in favor of the fetal heartbeat abortion restriction measure and against Governor Lee’s school voucher program.

Jenn Foley (jennfoley.com)
Jenn Foley (jennfoley.com)

Foley raised almost all of her funds directly from individuals; in contrast, Whitson raised $11,750 exclusively from PACs and large businesses.

This district is not expected to be competitive, seeing as Whitson won just two years ago by quite a large margin. He beat Democratic candidate Toby Shaffer 68% to 32%; however, this margin is slightly narrower than the margin in 2016. Unfortunately for Foley, the margin narrowing by 2 points every two years would still leave her woefully behind Whitson.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Jennifer Foley $6,591.17 $6,388.08 $4,472.24 $8,507.01
Sam Whitson* $144,694.31 $13,300.00 $8,830.85 $149,163.46

 

State House District 66 (Robertson County):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Incumbent and surgeon Sabi “Doc” Kumar is being challenged for reelection by Jarvus Turnley, a minister. Turnley has stated that he is passionate about the issues of criminal justice reform, increasing the resources available to veterans, and expanding Medicaid. He is also in favor of legalizing both medical and recreational marijuana. Kumar is in favor of legalizing medical marijuana, balancing the budget, and keeping the government small. Kumar was a co-sponsor of the fetal heartbeat abortion restriction measure and voted in favor of Lee’s school voucher program.

The majority of Kumar’s funding this quarter came from PACs and various business groups. Turnley has yet to file a campaign finance disclosure form, a likely indicator that he is not raising or spending money at all.

This district is not expected to be competitive in the slightest. Kumar won in 2018 by beating Democratic candidate Larry Proffitt 72% to 25% with Independent candidate David Ross taking 3%. 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Sabi Kumar* $99,877.55 $3,400.00 $657.00 $102,620.55
Jarvus Turnley Did Not File

 

State House District 67 (Clarksville):

CNalysis rating: Likely Democratic

Incumbent and a Marine Corps veteran Jason Hodges is being challenged for reelection by John Dawson, an Army veteran. Dawson is focused on increasing restrictions on abortion, creating more opportunities for vocational education, and expanding the state road network in Clarksville. Hodges, a former Montgomery County Commissioner and currently the House Deputy Minority Whip, is campaigning on increasing public school funding, expanding Medicaid, and legalizing medical marijuana.

State Rep. Jason Hodges (D-Clarksville) (Photo: Tennessee General Assembly)
State Rep. Jason Hodges (D-Clarksville) (Photo: Tennessee General Assembly)

Nearly half of the amount Dawson raised this quarter came directly from Republican politicians, their PACs, or affiliated groups; all told, he collected $8,000 in contributions from Republican politicians or organizations. Hodges raised about $17,000 from industry PACs or union groups, a majority of the funds raised by his campaign this quarter.

Hodges is endorsed by both Clarksville mayor Joe Pitts, a Democrat, and Montgomery County mayor Jim Durrett, a Republican. Dawson is endorsed by Congressman Mark Green and the National Federation of Independent Businesses.

While this district is expected to be competitive, it would not be surprising if Hodges won by a larger margin than 2018, considering the national environment. He beat Republican candidate Tommy Vallejos 52% to 45% with Dawson taking 3% as an Independent candidate. The competitiveness of this race is helped by both candidates being veterans in a district that is dominated by Fort Campbell.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
John Dawson $4,313.93 $16,633.50 $1,680.46 $19,266.97
Jason Hodges* $35,174.77 $30,561.00 $22,736.15 $42,999.62

 

State House District 68 (E. Montgomery County, outside of Clarksville):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Curtis Johnson is unopposed in the general election. Johnson is the Deputy Speaker of the House and was appointed to this position after Speaker Sexton came to power in August 2019.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Curtis Johnson* $49,233.15 $4,805.00 $2,450.00 $51,588.15

 

State House District 69 (Hickman, W. Dickson, Columbia & W. Maury Counties):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Incumbent and insurance broker Michael G. Curcio is being challenged for reelection by Eddie Johnson, a union pipefitter. Johnson is emphasizing increasing regulations on opioid prescriptions, lowering the cost of college, and raising the minimum wage. He has also advocated for increasing the pay of emergency responders. Curcio’s main political issues are keeping taxes low and reforming our criminal justice system to provide those who have served their time with more resources after their sentence. He voted in favor of both the fetal heartbeat abortion restriction measure and Governor Lee’s school voucher program.

Curcio raised more than $25,000 directly from PACs and various companies. In contrast, almost all of Johnson’s funding comes from labor-related committees.

This election is a rematch between these two candidates as they faced off in 2018. Then, Curcio beat Johnson 66% to 34%, a margin of 32 percentage points.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Michael G. Curcio* $98,733.81 $28,350.00 $11,554.67 $115,529.14
Eddie Johnson $20,216.43 $144.07 $4,685.00 $15,675.50

 

State House District 70 (Giles & Most of Lawrence Counties, except NW. Lawrence):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Clay Doggett is unopposed in the general election. Doggett is a small business owner and the Vice-Chair of the House Commerce Committee.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Clay Doggett* $30,313.81 $2,600.00 $650.00 $32,263.81

 

State House District 71 (Hardin, Lewis, Wayne & NW. Lawrence Counties):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

In a black mark for the state, a man accused of sexual assault by three seperate victims will continue serving in the General Assembly. Despite facing two credible challengers in the Republican primary, David Byrd was renominated by his district and is unopposed in the general election.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
David Byrd* $19,076.51 $1,350.00 $5,306.74 $15,119.77

 

State House District 72 (Henderson, Chester, Decatur and Perry Counties):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent and former Charlotte Hornets basketball player Kirk Haston is unopposed in the general election. He sponsored a bill reforming the age range of the Tennessee Bureau of Investigations Endangered Child Alert and voted in support of the fetal heartbeat abortion restriction bill.

 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Kirk Haston* $32,410.85 $4,060.00 $22,664.16 $13,806.69

 

State House District 73 (N. Jackson, NE., NW. & SE. Madison County):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Chris Todd is unopposed in the general election. Todd is the Vice-Chair of the House Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee. 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Chris Todd* $80,165.06 $7,250.00 $2,862.48 $84,552.58

 

State House District 74 (Houston, Humphreys & W. Montgomery Counties):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Jay D. Reedy is unopposed in the general election. As a legislator, Reedy has prioritized increasing local control of education implementation and decreasing the effects of federal mandates on state government actions and policies.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Jay D. Reedy* $16,716.17 $8,085.00 $4,499.25 $20,301.92

 

State House District 75 (Henry, Benton & Stewart Counties):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Incumbent Bruce Griffey is running without major party opposition, but James Hart has filed to run for this seat as an Independent candidate. No information about Hart is available. Griffey has been a proponent of increased government transparency and increased regulation over prescription medicines and opioids. Griffey voted against Lee’s school voucher program and for the fetal heartbeat abortion restrictions.

Griffey did not raise any money this quarter, but his campaign did contribute to several Republican groups, such as the Stewart County GOP and the Tennessee Firearms Association Legislative Action Committee. Hart did not raise money this cycle either, but did receive money for the small amount of interest generated by his campaign bank account.

Griffey is expected to cruise to reelection this year as Hart is doing very little campaigning. In 2018, Griffey beat Democratic candidate Richard Carl 70% to 25% with Hart taking 5% as an Independent. 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Bruce Griffey* $6,259.30 $0.00 $1,450.00 $4,809.85
James Hart $3,025.11 $0.38 $883.85 $2,141.64

 

State House District 76 (Weakley, NE. Obion & N. Carroll Counties):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

This district is now an open seat as Republican incumbent Andy Holt is retiring. Two people have filed for the general election: Greenfield community leader Tandy Darby as a Republican and Dresden Mayor Jeffery Washburn as an Independent. Washburn is campaigning on increasing economic development in the district, expanding Medicaid, and raising teacher salaries. Darby, who came out on top of a very competitive primary, is mainly focused on hot-button cultural issues such as restricting abortion rights and opposing illegal immigration.

Darby raised $8,000 directly from Republican legislators and a further $8,000 from various PACs and companies. This quarter, Washburn lended his own campaign a large sum to the tune of $15,000.

Darby is endorsed by Republican Senate candidate Bill Hagerty and former Congressman Stephen Fincher. Washburn carries the endorsement of the Sierra Club and a few local politicians from Dresden.

It is not easy to rate the competitiveness of this district. On one hand, the results of the 2018 race clearly show that the Republican brand is strong in this district; Republican incumbent Andy Holt beat Democratic candidate Deane Arganbright 72% to 28%. On the other hand, Washburn is a strong candidate as a local elected official and has raised a good amount of money. While this is no means set in stone, it would not be surprising if Darby won a close race purely based on party identification. 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Tandy Darby $26,212.47 $69,673.00 $28,635.44 $67,250.03
Jeffery T. Washburn $14,658.60 $17,125.66 $18,647.92 $13,136.34

 

State House District 77 (Dyer, Lake & all but NE. Obion County):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Rusty Grills is unopposed in the general election. Grills won a special election for this seat in December 2019 and is now unopposed in his first bid for a regular election victory. 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Rusty Grills* $31,877.74 $5,700.00 $4,600.22 $32,977.52

 

State House District 78 (Cheatham & E. Dickson Counties):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Rep. Mary Littleton (Photo: Tennessee General Assembly)
Rep. Mary Littleton (Photo: Tennessee General Assembly)

Incumbent Mary Littleton is being challenged for reelection by Holly Spann, an environmental activist. Spann is campaigning on the issues of strengthening environmental protections laws, combating the opioid epidemic, and encouraging economic development. Littleton has voted in favor of legalizing medical marijuana and supports increased infrastructure funding. She voted in favor of both Lee’s school voucher program and the fetal heartbeat abortion restriction measure. 

Littleton raised $1,750 from PACs and corporations this quarter, and is spending quite liberally for an incumbent in a safe district. Spann gave her own campaign $300 this quarter and collected the rest of her contributions from small-dollar donations.

This election is not expected to be competitive, as Littleton won by a large margin in 2018. She beat Democratic candidate John Patrick 69% to 31%.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Mary Littleton* $113,913.67 $2,350.00 $27,275.96 $88,987.71
Holly Spann $700.00 $975.00 $847.78 $827.22

State House District 79 (Gibson & Carroll Counties):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Curtis Halford is unopposed in the general election. Halford is the Chair of the House Agriculture and Natural Resources Committee.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Curtis Halford* $68,208.99 $5,345.70 $7,208.85 $66,345.84

 

State House District 80 (Jackson, SW. Madison & most of Hardeman Counties):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Democratic

Incumbent Johnny Shaw is unopposed in the general election. Shaw also owns a Christian radio station that broadcasts throughout West Tennessee and North Mississippi.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Johnny Shaw* $19,363.52 $4,750.00 $1,609.58 $22,503.94

 

State House District 81 (Tipton County):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Debra Moody is unopposed in the general election. During her time in the General Assembly, Moody has focused on supporting our state parks and expanding rural broadband access.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Debra Moody* $66,245.62 $1,150.00 $0.00 $67,395.62

 

State House District 82 (Lauderdale, Crockett & Haywood Counties):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

Incumbent and real estate broker Chris Hurt is being challenged for reelection by Andrea Bond Johnson, a CEO of a local insurance agency. Bond Johnson is campaigning on the issues of expanding Medicaid, encouraging economic development, and increasing access to rural broadband. She has also advocated for increasing public school funding. Hurt, a former teacher, voted in favor of Lee’s school voucher program and supported the fetal heartbeat abortion restriction measure. As seen by his time in the General Assembly, Hurt is basing his campaign on social issue like abortion.

Andrea Bond Johnson, Democratic candidate for State House 82 in West Tennessee (Photo: Andrea Bond Johnson Facebook)
Andrea Bond Johnson, Democratic candidate for State House 82 in West Tennessee (Photo: Andrea Bond Johnson Facebook)

Hurt collected $9,500 from several PACs and companies with an additional $9,500 coming from various Republican politicians. He paid the Tennessee Republican Party more than $17,000 for advertising this quarter. Bond Johnson collected more than $14,000 directly from Democratic politicians and committees.

Bond Johnson is endorsed by the Tennessee chapter of the AFL-CIO and Future901, a progressive social group based in West Tennessee. Hurt is endorsed by the National Federation of Independent Businesses and the Tennessee Right to Life PAC, an anti-abortion advocacy group.

Rep. Chris Hurt, R-Halls (Photo: Tennessee General Assembly)
Rep. Chris Hurt, R-Halls (Photo: Tennessee General Assembly)

This will be the second election in a row that these two candidates face off. In 2018, Hurt beat Bond Johnson 57% to 43%, but the margin may be closer in a presidential election year. Another point in her favor is that this district does have a history of electing Democrats, most recently in 2016. Still it will be an uphill climb for Bond Johnson to flip this seat back to the Democratic column.

 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Andrea Bond Johnson $45,660.16 $50,547.88 $12,883.63 $83,324.41
Chris Hurt* $45,435.99 $50,700.00 $30,960.68 $65,175.31

 

State House District 89 (Hardin Valley & Karns):

CNalysis rating: Safe Republican

First-term incumbent Justin Lafferty is running for reelection without major party opposition, although Greg Mills did file to run in this district as an Independent candidate. Lafferty’s campaign is focused around keeping taxes stable and increasing government transparency through open records laws; he did vote in favor of Lee’s school voucher program. No information on Mills is available.

Lafferty received $1,500 from industry PACs this quarter. Mills’ sole donation this quarter comes from the $1,000 he gave himself.

In 2018, Lafferty first won election to this district by beating Democratic candidate Colleen Martinez 64% to 36%. 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Justin Lafferty* $28,869.53 $2,120.00 $1,040.05 $29,949.48
Greg Mills $637.13 $1,000.00 $1,298.56 $338.57

 

State House District 92 (Marshall, S. Franklin, S. Lincoln,

 & S. Marion Counties):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Small business owner Todd Warner successfully primaried incumbent Rick Tillis in August and he is unopposed in the general election. Warner has based his campaign around hot-button cultural issues such as abortion and immigration reform.

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Todd Warner $2,853.53 $37,500.00 $31,011.17 $9,342.36

 

State House District 94 (Fayette, McNairy & S. strip of Hardeman Counties):

CNalysis rating: Uncontested Republican

Incumbent Ron M. Gant is unopposed in the general election.. Gant is the House Assistant Majority Leader and advocated for stricter limits on abortion. 

Candidate Name Starting Balance Raised in Q3 Spent in Q3 Cash on Hand
Ron M. Gant* $156,682.65 $39,300.00 $4,718.00 $191,264.65

 

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Lucas Brooks
Lucas Brooks

Lucas Brooks is a second-year college student from Knoxville. He first became interested in politics after the 2016 election and maps state legislative election results on his Twitter @LucasTBrooks. In his free time, he loves to hike and cheer on the University of Tennessee Volunteers.

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