State Rep. Gloria Johnson, D-Knoxville, with supporters in Nashville at her Sept. 5 U.S. Senate campaign launch. (Photo: John Partipilo)

The 2024 elections are more than a year away, and Tennessee is never a battleground state, but national trends could play a role in federal and state races in the Volunteer State. 

The U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to reverse federal protections for abortion in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization case has rebounded in elections across the country — and not in favor of conservatives. 

In August 2022, about six weeks after the court’s decision, Kansas voters — not known for their liberal politics — voted down a state constitutional amendment that would end access to abortion 60% to 40%. 

A nearly identical scenario played out in Ohio in August, when voters defeated Issue 1 — a move to make it harder for voters to change the state constitution ahead of an abortion rights ballot measure — by  59% to 41%. 

Tennessee enacted one of the strictest abortion bans in the U.S. after the Dobbs decision. Anecdotally, Tennessee women are powerfully unhappy about the ban. And after a shooter killed six people, including three 9-year-olds, at a Nashville Christian school in March, gun safety lit a fire under many Tennessee women. 

Already, we’re seeing signs that the two issues could shake up federal and local elections in the state. 

U.S. Senate

On Sept. 5, state Rep. Gloria Johnson, a Knoxville Democrat, announced she would run for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate seat to take on incumbent Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn.

Johnson isn’t the only Democratic candidate, as Marquita Bradshaw of Memphis — Bradshaw was the 2020 Democratic Senate nominee —  has filed to run, but Johnson is the odds on favorite to win the primary.

She has been beloved by Democrats across the state for years for her willingness to support county party events and speak anywhere to any group, and for her unique ability to get under the skin of Tennessee GOP colleagues. But she gained national recognition after state House Republicans moved to expel her in April as part of the “Tennessee Three” mess. 

Normally, the entry of a Democrat into a contest against a GOP incumbent elicits nothing but silence from Republicans, but not so this time. Social media erupted with Johnson’s announcement, as Republican lawmakers and even Ward Baker, Blackburn’s social media-shy campaign brain, took to Twitter/X with their poor opinions about Johnson’s candidacy. 

One take: Former Gov. Phil Bredesen, the Democratic nominee in 2018 against Blackburn, won all 95 counties during his final gubernatorial race in 2006 but lost to Blackburn by 15%, earning only 37% of the vote. Republican reasoning goes that if he couldn’t fare any better, Johnson will do worse. 

Let’s talk about why they are wrong. 

Bredesen left office in 2010, and by 2018, voters — especially young ones and those who had moved to Tennessee in the intervening years — had no idea who he was. 

And while Bredesen was always judged to be a competent official, he was never exciting, nor was he ever thought to be progressive. Democrats were glad to have a strong  and competitive candidate, but they weren’t excited about Bredesen the man. And he committed an unforced error late in the campaign when he alienated women by saying he would have voted to confirm then-U.S. Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, who had been accused of sexual assault. 

By contrast, Tennessee Democratic voters are genuinely excited about Johnson, who raised $1.3 million in her first six weeks of campaigning. She will need far more than that to wage a competitive campaign, but make no mistake that this race is going to draw national attention, and Johnson will rake in money from across the country — from both small donors and progressive mega-donors. 

And Johnson will run a progressive race, unlike Bredesen, who stuck to his moderate roots. The Trump era is marked by hyper-partisan polarization and there’s little room for moderates.

Admittedly, Johnson has an uphill climb, but she’s also said she will campaign to help down-ballot Democrats, including those in congressional races — and there may be a few interesting candidates in those — and state legislative races, and her efforts could bring a coattail effect. 

Legislative races

Hundreds of women descended on the August special legislative session on public safety,  including mothers of Covenant students and members of the gun safety group, Moms Demand Action. By the end of the do-nothing session in which lawmakers failed to take up substantive gun policy measures, many of the women were promising to run against recalcitrant Republican legislators. 

It remains to be seen what the Covenant moms do — most live in Davidson County, in which there are no Republican lawmakers, or suburban Williamson — but several gun safety advocates have already announced campaigns. 

In Sumner County, Alison Beale will challenge Rep. Johnny Garrett, R-Goodlettsville, who co-sponsored the resolution to expel Johnson, Pearson and Jones. Beale has volunteered with the Akilah DaSilva Foundation, which is named for one of the victims of a 2018 mass shooting at a Nashville Waffle House. Wilson County’s Ailina Carona will take on Rep. Susan Lynn, R-Mt. Juliet. Carona’s website features ‘sensible gun laws’ as a top issue, and references the Covenant School shooting. Lynn voted for the expulsion of the “Tennessee Three” and earlier in her career, voted against removing a bust of Confederate general and early Ku Klux Klan leader Nathan Bedford Forrest from the Tennessee Capitol.

And in Montgomery County, Allie Phillips will take on first term Rep. Jeff Burkhart, R-Clarksville. Phillips has a compelling story: During a 2022 pregnancy, she found out her baby would not live upon birth and to continue the pregnancy would endanger her own life. Due to Tennessee’s abortion ban, Phillips had to travel to New York to obtain necessary health care. And, like Beale and Carona, Phillips cites the need for safe gun laws. She’s running in a district favorable to Democrats and may have the best shot at a win.

Realistic Tennessee Democrats talk about redefining what a win looks like. Nothing beats elected butts in seats, but pragmatists know that building the moribund state Democratic Party back from the hole it’s in will require competent candidates to get in the arena and slug it out, and even getting within 10 points of a Republican incumbent would represent enormous progress.

As the old saying goes, “if mama ain’t happy, nobody’s happy.” Tennessee’s women aren’t happy with the way male lawmakers have handled reproductive health and gun laws, and maybe, enough unhappy women entering electoral politics could be the win.

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