The Look in Brief

Campbell poll shows lead in the 5th District Congressional race against Republican Ogles

By: - August 22, 2022 3:30 pm
Sen. Heidi Campbell, D-Nashville, in her legislative office at the Cordell Hull Building. (Photo: John Partipilo)

Sen. Heidi Campbell, D-Nashville, i(Photo: John Partipilo)

A poll released by State Sen. Heidi Campbell’s congressional campaign shows the Democratic nominee leading Republican nominee, Maury County Mayor Andy Ogles, by a 51%-48% margin. 

Campbell and Ogles are vying for the open 5th Congressional District seat, vacated by veteran Democratic Rep. Jim Cooper after the district was redrawn by the legislature. 

The poll, conducted by Frederick Polling, surveyed more than 1,662 likely voters in the district Aug. 12 to Aug. 17. 

Andy Ogles, center, with his wife, Monica, and political advisor Steve Gill, react to news Ogles won the Republican nomination for the 5th Congressional District. (Photo: John Partipilo)
Andy Ogles, center, with his wife, Monica, and political advisor Steve Gill, react to news Ogles won the Republican nomination for the 5th Congressional District. (Photo: John Partipilo)

A memo of poll top lines released to the media by Frederick reports findings including:

  • Among the 54% of respondents who said they could still be persuaded to support either candidate, abortion access emerged as a salient issue. 
  •  About 70% of the persuadable respondents labeled themselves “pro choice” and at least nine out of 10  favored abortion exemptions for “life of the mother” and for “victims of rape or incest.”
  • Among persuadable voters in the 5th District, former President Donald Trump had a net -46% unfavorable rating (26% favorable, 72% unfavorable).

“Elections are about choices and there’s never been a clearer difference between two candidates: I’m a mom, a former mayor and a Tennessee senator who will work with members of any party to solve problems and get results for working families,” Campbell said. “Andy Ogles is a Trump Republican who wants to use the government to limit our freedom and to control what you think and what you do with your body.”

A spokesman for the Ogles campaign responded with a statement: “We typically don’t respond to internal polls so clearly skewed to favor the candidate that paid to have the poll conducted.”

The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes congressional districts based on how strongly they lean either Democrat or Republican, rates the new District 5 as “Lean Republican,” with a generic Republican candidate favored by 8%.

As of the July 15 Federal Election Commission disclosure, Campbell had raised just over $329,000 with no personal loans; Ogles reported raising $584,400, including a personal loan of $320,000 and a net $264,000 from individual donors.

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